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The obstacles facing switchover if no action is taken

The popularity and take-up of digital television has been so rapid that it is easy to understand why the Government is committed to switchover but is not actively putting the change into practice.

However, our expectation about digital TV is that such a market-led approach is likely to hit natural limits. As we explained in the previous section, some households do not want to change to digital TV, other households do not want to get pay TV on cable or satellite, and even more households want to get Freeview but cannot receive it where they live. This means that high levels for digital take-up are unlikely to be met, including the Government's 1999 indicator of affordability which was set at 95 per cent per cent of households.

Specific obstacles in the way are shown below.

Consumer take-up

At present, some consumers do not value digital TV. Attitudes are likely to change (mobile phones, for example, were considered to have limited appeal in the early 1990s), but surveys of consumer attitude show that in 2003 some households (5 per cent) said that they would be willing to live without TV rather than change their sets to digital. Some more (15 per cent) see little value in the greater choice digital TV offers.

Only a few currently support the policy of full switchover.

And, consumers are considerably less interested in changing secondary TVs than their main TV set.

Broadcasters' incentives

Broadcasters are crucial for achieving switchover, but they will need to have a clear incentive to help the UK achieve the switchover.

Though some of ITV's and Channel 4's costs would fall if they could stop broadcasting both a digital and an analogue signal, their income from advertising might also fall as switchover would increase the number of TV channels available.

The BBC has an equally difficult balancing act. Switchover would reduce its transmission costs, but any loss of viewers could reduce the public's support for the licence fee.

Free-to-view digital TV

Free-to-view digital TV (where viewers do not pay a monthly subscription) will still be an important feature of the TV market for the near future. However, around a quarter of households cannot receive it until switchover starts.

BSkyB offers to install a satellite dish and a set-top box for £169 GBP and free-to-view satellite does not have the same coverage problems of Freeview. However, viewers cannot currently receive all the main TV channels - BBC1, BBC2, ITV, Channel 4 and Five - by satellite without paying a monthly subscription.

Timing issues

The Government has not announced a switchover timetable yet, so the timing of switchover lacks certainty. Without a more definite timetable, broadcasters, transmission companies, manufacturers and consumers will be less willing to invest in the equipment needed for the switchover.

Putting switchover Into practice

For the past few years, many of the people and groups interested in switchover have met regularly to produce a Digital TV Action Plan. It has been very successful in setting out the steps needed for digital switchover. But as the UK moves from planning to putting switchover into practice we will need co-ordination and active management to complete the process effectively.

If the process is not managed efficiently, the risks are that switchover would not happen, or that a great deal of unnecessary disruption would surround the process.

International agreements

Many of the wider benefits of switchover would come only if spectrum can be reused after the analogue signal is switched off. We will represent the UK at important international conferences which will decide how the spectrum which has been released may be used. These international issues do not represent a specific obstacle to digital take-up, but the idea behind switchover depends on flexible use of the spectrum for the UK after these forthcoming conferences.