The Future of Communications and E-Commerce? - Hewitt

DTI Press Release - 8 June 2000

Patricia Hewitt, the Small Business and E-Commerce Minister, today published a report which looks into the possible future world of communications and e-commerce.

The report, "Mapping the Future of Convergence and Spectrum Management", which was commissioned by the Radiocommunications Agency, sets out four visions of the future:

Internet Convergence - Telecommunications, computing, entertainment and information are delivered over the Internet, which becomes part of the fabric of everyday life;

Digital Islands - Users are attracted to the security and convenience of proprietary closed networks, or 'walled gardens', which are entered through trusted portals to the Internet and interactive digital television;

Total Mobility - Changes in lifestyle and work patterns lead users to value the convenience of mobile communications free from the physical constraints of cabling. Mobile devices become the main means
of accessing the Internet;

Broadband Revolution - Ever-increasing demand for massive amounts of data, for example for virtual reality and interactive games, means that only optical fibre has the capacity to deliver. Wireless communication is less prominent.

Ms Hewitt said:

"New technologies like digital TV and mobile phones are changing the way we live, work and communicate. The astonishing growth of the Internet brings with it tremendous opportunities.

"I want the UK to be at the leading edge of this new knowledge driven economy. That is why we need a framework of regulation and spectrum management that is modern, effective and promotes competition.

"Change in technology and markets is happening fast. The only certainty is that any single prediction of the future is almost certain to be wrong. We need to consider a range of possibilities if we are to develop effective and forward-looking policies. The scenarios will be of great value in this and the insights they provide will help us make the UK the best place in the world for electronic trading."

The Radiocommunications Agency is inviting views on the four scenarios and the analysis of their implications for spectrum management. Suggestions or additional visions can be sent to Laurence Green laurence.green@ra.gsi.gov.uk by 4 August.

The scenarios are not predictions and the Government has no preference in favour of any one of them. The range of outcomes they suggest will be used to develop the Agency's spectrum strategy. They will also be used as background for policies being developed for the forthcoming Communications Reform White Paper, announced by the Secretaries of State for Trade and Industry and for Culture, Media and Sport on 3 February 2000.

Notes for Editors

1. The term 'convergence' refers to the coming together of telecommunications, broadcasting and computing. This process is revolutionising communications and is having profound consequences for businesses and consumers.

2. The Radiocommunications Agency commissioned scenario specialists NerveWire (www.nervewire.com), in collaboration with Indepen (www.indepen.co.uk) and Intercai Mondiale (www.intercai.co.uk), to produce scenarios for convergence looking 10 years ahead and to assess the implications for the management of the radio spectrum.

3. The consultants' report has now been published on the Agency's website (www.radio.gov.uk). It is also available free of charge in hard copy from the Agency's Library and Information Service (Radiocommunications Agency Library and Information Service, Wyndham House, 189 Marsh Wall, London E14 9SX; public enquiries: 020 7211 0211; e-mail: library@ra.gsi.gov.uk). Further information on the Communications Reform White Paper is available at http://www.communicationswhitepaper.gov.uk

4. The four scenarios are not predictions of the future (and there is no intention to try to influence events towards one or the other). They take account of a broad range of economic, political, social and technological factors to generate a range of possible outcomes that can be used to develop policies in conditions of uncertainty.

5. The report was produced through a programme of research, workshops and in-depth interviews with a range of prominent players in the private and public sectors in telecommunications, broadcasting and computing.

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