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Mapping the Future of Convergence and Spectrum Management |
Foreword by David Hendon, Chief Executive of Radiocommunications Agency
Computing, telecommunications, and broadcasting are converging, driven by advances in technology. As evidenced by the phenomenal growth of the Internet, convergence will act as a catalyst for a wide range of business and social change. Exploiting knowledge and ideas to the full will be vital to making the most of the opportunities to improve the UK’s international competitiveness and becoming the best place in the world to trade electronically.
Efficient and inclusive communications networks capable of carrying vast amounts of data underpin the successful knowledge economy. Radio is a key element of that infrastructure and is at the leading edge of the revolution in communications. ‘M-commerce’ – mobile commerce, which many see as the next step in electronic commerce, would be impossible without radio. Wireless links enable national telecommunications networks to be rolled out quickly and cost-effectively, including broadband ‘last mile’ connections to individual subscribers. Radio local area networks provide flexible high-speed data links to electronic equipment within premises, free from the constraints of hard-wired connections.
However, the radio spectrum is a finite resource. There are many competing technologies and services. Which find success in the market place will depend on how well they meet consumer needs and preferences. The challenge facing this Agency is how to make spectrum available to meet the growing and often-conflicting demands of businesses, consumers and essential services at a time of rapid, unpredictable change. This will require a flexible, dynamic approach using a full range of spectrum management tools, including regulation, pricing and trading.
To help meet this challenge, the Agency commissioned NerveWire, Indepen and Intercai Mondiale to ‘map the future’ of convergence and spectrum management. The resulting scenarios in this report provide an insightful forward look to a range of possible futures. They are not predictions. However, by considering a variety of alternative outcomes, we can be better prepared for an unpredictable and fast-changing future. I am convinced that the ‘Future Mapping’ approach will be invaluable in updating the Agency’s spectrum strategy and also in formulating policies on communications and electronic commerce generally.
I would like to take this opportunity to thank all those in business, academia and Whitehall who took the time and trouble to contribute to the study. I very much hope that publication of this report will spark a stimulating and wide-ranging debate about the future course of convergence.
David Hendon
Comments on any aspect of the report, including the scenarios themselves or the analysis of their implications for spectrum management, or suggestions for additional visions of the future are welcome. Please send these by 4 August 2000 to:
Laurence Green
Radiocommunications Agency Strategy Unit
11B/20C, Wyndham House
189 Marsh Wall
London E14 9SX
e-mail: laurence.green@ra.gsi.gov.uk
Please note that comments will be published unless they are clearly stated to be confidential. Unconditional permission to publish will be assumed unless the author explicitly stipulates to the contrary. Copyright attached to comments will be assumed to have been relinquished unless expressly reserved.
It would be helpful if written comments could also be submitted in electronic format (Word 6.0).
Further copies of this report may be obtained free of charge from the Agency’s Library and Information Service at Wyndham House (address above) or from the Agency’s website (www.radio.gov.uk).
May 2000 |
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