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Economic Impact of Radio '95 |
Appendix 4 . Additional information concerning PBR
4.1. PBR market segmentation
Using information gained from a variety of sources we have divided the total PBR market into seven distinct groups each with different needs. This segmentation allows the needs and economics of each group to be considered separately. Statistics for 1995 are provided in Tables A4.1 and A4.2, although it should be noted that the number of national users given in Table A4.2 is for 1994 as the RA does not have 1995 values for this category. In these tables, the estimated average cost per terminal per annum to the user includes both capital and revenue components associated with both terminals and infrastructure. Note that emergency services do not fall within the RA’s control at present.
Based upon statistics supplied by the Radiocommunications Agency the General market segment can be subdivided and summarised as in Table A4.2 below:
The figures show a total market of annual value of approximately £280m. The public safety organisations provide some 20% of this market, with the rest being divided amongst a number of smaller user communities.
4.2. Predicted future provision
Tables A4.3 and A4.4 give our predicted future provision for each of the segments given in Tables A4.1 and A4.2.
Table A4.1
Summary of market segments
| Emergency services | Utilities | Railways | Local Government | National Government | General PBR | Short range | |
| Includes | Police, Fire, Ambulance | Gas, Electricity, Water | BR, BTP (excludes underground railways) | County, Metropolitan, Regional and District Councils | HMC&E, DSS, MoD Police, Immigration | Taxis, couriers, delivery, security, industry, etc. | Mainly on-site users including security, etc. |
| Number of terminals | 95,000 | 68,000 | 30,000 | 82,000 | 15,000 | 360,000 | 180,000 |
| Cost/user/year | £500-700 | £700-800 | £700-800 | £300-400 | £500-700 | £150-700 | £ 75 |
| Annual value (£) | ~60M | ~51M | ~22M | ~30M | ~10M | ~100M | ~13M |
Source: Radiocommunications Agency, Smith estimates (for utilities).
TableA4.2
Summary of general segment subdivisions
| Taxis/private car hire | Motorcycle/ pedal cycle despatch | Bus and coach operators | Construction companies | Oil/ petroleum | Large stores | Car industry | National users | Other large users | Other users | |
| Number of terminals | 142,000 | 10,000 | 17,000 | 5,500 | 3,500 | 10,000 | 2,900 | 60,000 | 13,000 | 100,000 |
| Cost/user/year | £150-300 | £150-300 | £ 150-300 | £150-300 | £150-300 | £150-300 | £ 150-300 | £ 500-700 | £ 150-300 | £150-300 |
| Annual value (£) | ~28M | ~2.3M | ~4M | ~1.2M | ~0.8M | ~2.3M | ~0.7M | ~35M | ~3M | ~22M |
Source: Radiocommunications Agency (terminal numbers), Smith (costs)
Table A4.3
Predicted future provision of mobile communications
| Emergency services | Utilities | Railways | Local Government | National Government | General PBR | Short range | |
| Number of terminals | 95,000 | 68,000 | 30,000 | 82,000 | 15,000 | 360,000 | 180,000 |
| Predicted future provision | Using a dedicated PBR system | Digital PAMR subject to suitable control | Public GSM subject to suitable agreements | Digital or analogue PAMR | PAMR or other shared national system | See below | Remain with current self-provision |
Source: NERA/Smith analysis
Table A4.4
Predicted future provision of mobile communications
| Taxis/ private car hire |
Motorcycle/ pedal cycle despatch | Bus and coach operators | Construction companies | Oil/ petroleum | Large stores | Car industry | National | Other large users | Other users | |
| Number of terminals | 142,000 | 10,000 | 17,000 | 5,500 | 3,500 | 10,000 | 2,900 | 60,000 | 13,000 | 100,000 |
| Predicted future provision | Remain with current self-provision | Remain with current self-provision | Digital PAMR | Remain with current self-provision | Remain with current self-provision | Remain with current self-provision | Remain with current self-provision | Digital PAMR | Not known (category contains a wide range of uses) | Not known (category contains a wide range of uses) |
Source: NERA/Smith analysis
4.3 . Efficiency measures
4.3.1 . Bandwidth per channel
Table A4.5
Comparison of Bandwidth per Channel
| Type | Channel bandwidth | Notes |
| Paging | 25kHz | A single paging channel can accommodate many users simultaneously |
| PBR | 12.5kHz | New technologies offer 6.25KHz and 5KHz channels |
| PAMR | 12.5kHz | New technology will reduce this to 6.25kHz |
| 900MHz cellular and PCN | 25kHz |
Source: NERA/Smith analysis
4.3.2 . Number of subscribers per MHz
Table A4.6
Comparison of Number of Subscribers per MHz
| Type | Spectrum allocation | Number of subscribers | Subscribers/MHz |
| Paging | about 2MHz | ~1m | 500,000 |
| PBR | about 47MHz | ~800,000 | 17,000 |
| PAMR | 20.5MHz | ~100,000 | 5,000 |
| 900MHz cellular | 80MHz | ~5.5m | 69,000 |
| PCN | 100MHz | ~1.3m | 13,000 |
Source: NERA/Smith analysis
With regard to this measure it is worth noting that:
the spectrum assigned to PAMR is subject to significant continental interference and hence not able to be used as efficiently as other parts of the spectrum;
PCN can still be considered to be in its start-up phase and may reach the level of subscribers/MHz achieved by 900MHz cellular in due course;
although paging achieves a high efficiency, it offers less functionality than other services in that it only allows one-way messaging.
4.3.3 . Amount of traffic per MHz
Table A4.7
Comparison of amount of traffic per MHz
| Spectrum allocation | Amount of traffic transmitted/day | Traffic/day/MHz | |
| Paging | about 2MHz | 220x106bits | 110Mbits |
| PBR | about 47MHz | Not known | 16,000 |
| PAMR | 20.5MHz | 492x109bits | 24,000Mbits |
| 900MHz cellular | 80MHz | 4,890x109bits | 61,100Mbits |
| PCN | 100MHz | 2,970x109bits | 29,700Mbits |
Source: NERA/Smith analysis
4.3.4 . Spectrum re-use
Table A4.8
Comparison of spectrum re-use
| Channel bandwidth | Cluster size (estimate) |
Re-use (kHz) |
|
| Paging | 25kHz | 1 |
25 |
| PBR | 12.5kHz | 12 |
150 |
| PAMR | 12.5kHz | 12 |
150 |
| 900MHz cellular and PCN | 25kHz | 9 |
225 |
Source: NERA/Smith analysis
Note that the re-use factor effectively indicates the spectrum required per cell for a single channel by taking into account the fact that the spectrum cannot be used in neighbouring cells. Therefore, a low value is preferred.
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