Economic Impact of Radio '95

5. International Comparisons

In this chapter we rank the activity within the UK relative to other major countries in:

• international broadcasting;
• aeronautical communications;
• satellite communications;
• mobile communications;
• radio in the local loop.

The ranking system used has been, as far as possible, the same as that adopted in the 1994/5 economic value study in order to allow comparisons with the earlier findings.

5.1. International Broadcasting

International broadcasting activity can be compared in terms of the number of programme hours broadcast per week by international radio broadcasters. The latest figures obtained from the International Broadcasting Research library are detailed below, together with the comparable figures from the previous study.

Table 5.1
Comparison of international broadcasting

Source: International Broadcasting Research Library

It can be seen that the general trend is for an increase in broadcast hours, although Russia and the USA have a net decrease in broadcast hours since the previous study. The UK’s position has increased from fourth to third as a consequence of the reduction in Russia’s external broadcasts and the 18% increase in the UK’s output over the last two years.

5.2. Aeronautical Communications

In the previous study it was indicated that usage of the radio spectrum for aeronautical communications does not necessarily give an indication of the actual requirement for spectrum as the usage of each channel depends upon the controller environment.

The broad indicator of aeronautical use of radio spectrum used in the previous study was that of aircraft movements in and out of European airports taking account of approximate passenger and freight movements (100kg of cargo was counted as a passenger unit). The figures reported dated back to 1991 and have not been updated.

In order to obtain more recent figures from a readily available source that takes account of world-wide aircraft movements, a new measure is proposed - namely that of total movement kilometres in a year (including both passenger and freight where 100kg is again counted as a passenger unit). These figures are available on an annual basis from the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) which is the body that is responsible for the assignment of spectrum for aeronautical air/ground communications. The figures for 1995 showing the passenger/freight (million) kilometres from/to each country in question are in Table 5.2. Figures for 1994 are also included, for comparison.

Table 5.2
Comparison of aeronautical traffic

Source: International Civil Aviation Organisation journal

It can be seen that the UK is ranked second in the world, the same ranking as that identified in the previous study which only included European countries and the USA. The number of passenger/freight kilometres is greater in 1995 than in 1994 for most countries, including the UK.

5.3. Satellite Communications

The previous economic impact study measured international satellite activity in terms of the investment share of each country in international satellite bodies. For Eutelsat and Intelsat the investment share corresponds to the percentage of transponders leased, while for Inmarsat the investment share is calculated from a formula based upon the levels of traffic carried through a country’s ground station and traffic involving mobiles registered to a country. The latest figures, sourced directly from each consortium’s annual report, have been used for the compilation of this table.

Table 5.3

Comparison of international satellite shareholdings

Source: Annual reports of consortia

The UK’s position in three of the consortia (Eumetsat, Inmarsat and Intelsat) remains the same as for the previous study. However the UK’s position in Eutelsat has risen from second to first, replacing Spain. Combining the figures indicates that, as in the previous study, the UK is ranked second in the world in terms of international satellite traffic.

The use of low earth orbiting satellite communications for satellite personal communications services is planned in the next few years. We have attempted to source details of individual country’s investment in such satellite organisations, which include ICO, Iridium, Globalstar, Odyssey and Teledesic. However only a limited amount of information is publicly available. This typically lists shareholders but does not divulge their percentage shareholding. Hence, it has not yet been possible to present the UK shareholding in these ventures.

5.4. Mobile Communications

As discussed in the previous study, the number of cellular subscribers in a country provides a good measure of the use of mobile communications.

The numbers presented have been obtained from the Financial Times. It should be noted that the subscriber figures for European countries are more recent (by a few months) than those for countries outside Europe. The most recently published figures have been utilised for the compilation of this table.

Table 5.4

Comparison of cellular subscribers

Source: Financial Times, Mobile Communications, January 97

It can be seen that all subscriber figures are considerably larger than those given in the previous report. This is mainly a consequence of the launch of cellular services by new operators, often employing digital technology, which in turn has stimulated the market.

The UK’s ranking has fallen from second to third due to the growth of cellular services in Japan. This position may change further as countries with a relatively low level of penetration, such as Germany, experience market growth at a faster rate than that within the UK. Furthermore the market for cellular services in Asia is likely to grow significantly in the coming years.

5.5. Radio in the Local Loop

As discussed in the previous study, it is very difficult to identify a suitable measure to be used in this area, particularly as little information is available concerning wireless local loop systems.

The measure adopted in the previous study was the number of operators that currently offer either a commercial or trial service or have licences to do so. Unfortunately, no comprehensive source of such information is available at present. Figures given below of the number of operators have been compiled from details contained in a number of communications journals, and hence are likely to be incomplete.

Of particular importance is that the figures in the table overstate the use of radio in the local loop in those countries that offer regional licences. Examples include Hungary (where four licences are regional), China, Sri Lanka and the UK (two licences). However, it has not been possible to determine for all countries whether licences are regional or national, for example we have not been able to do so in Columbia.

Table 5.5

Comparison of number of local loop operators

Source: International communications journals

It can be seen that the UK is ranked second in terms of the number of operators. In terms of numbers of subscribers, however, other developing countries make considerable use of radio for the expansion of basic telephony and will always have considerably more subscribers than the UK. In the table above we estimate that only the UK is using radio in the local loop as a means of providing competition to the incumbent operator. For this specific use the UK is ranked first in the world.

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