|
Sir Angus Tait
|
Good Morning and Greetings from New Zealand. Greetings also to my many friends out there in the audience I am very pleased to have the opportunity to say a few words at this Seminar and I commend the initiative of the FCS and the RA in putting it together. It could well prove to be the most useful PMR discussion between all involved parties for many years and quite possibly the most significant. I would like to have been there in person but it didn’t fit my schedule – besides I really prefer to be in NZ in December rather than in the UK.
The Seminars success must lie in willing involvement by all parties and I do hope there is a good level of outspokenness. Any credible view of the future of our industry needs to enclose inputs from all parties and that includes manufacturers, distributors, users and regulators, any shortfall diminishes its worth. So please speak up – be involved! The core theme is the future of PMR – the future of a whole industry! Pretty important stuff. Some might say that it has no future! The naysayers have some other agenda. PMR has made an enormously cost effective contribution to the economies of many countries over the years of its existence and I hear no plausible rationale that it will not continue so into the future
Consider the history of PMR. It grew out of WWII VHF/UHF technology and worldwide it provided a fine workhorse for mobile comms. Many users would have been better served by a true mobile telephone – not the press to talk of that era. It took about 20 years for the technology to catch up with this ideal and in those two decades a lot of mobile know how was generated based on PMR experience, providing a firm foundation. With the reality of cellular many defected from PMR for the phone that they really needed - no surprise there. The cellular wave swept across the world over the succeeding two decades and the infant that grew out of PMR is now of giant proportions. With the further explosive growth now promised in 3 G technology some people fear that it will carry all before it and that PMR will simply disappear under this further great wave. Before succumbing to the 3G hype it is important to review events over the last two decades. Cellular established itself as the logical extension of the public switched networks and grew proportionately. PMR was bruised in this process but almost subconsciously recognised its true role and focussed accordingly.
PMR is a management tool – managing vehicle fleets and / or people and it does that very cost effectively. It is not a simple talk box. In the present environment successful implementation (ultimately sales) comes from truly understanding the customers needs. This has called for informed marketing and awareness. One size does not fit all. It is far from a sharp High St cellular sales job. Thus PMR has survived and prospered where its role has been well understood. Cellular has washed around it but PMR, properly focussed has stood firm. And so I’m quite confident that it will continue to stand firm but with a strong proviso regarding the clear understanding of its niche and never forget that a fair chunk of that understanding must come from the users. Listen to your customers.
Within this secure future lies the issue of preferred technology – is it an exclusively digital future, as some would have us believe – what are the imperatives? Well, we live in an analogue world and PMR has its roots in analogue technology and is still dominant. Cellular has long gone digital and some of the players having made large investments in the technology are, not surprisingly, keen to see the benefits from that investment flow through to PMR.
Tetra was presented as the logical successor to analogue PMR. We now know otherwise. The claims are less strident now but its complexity has made for an arrival too late. It may well survive but maybe only at the top end of the market. Many will question its value for money for the level of usage may well not reap economies of scale. I’m sure those bold few pioneers in the Tetra swamp wrestling the alligators must wonder at times why they ever got in there and when will the swamp be clear. And when will they make any money out of it?
Work proceeds on specifying the DIIS standard; the nearer digital equivalent of analogue PMR but product is not on the horizon. It may be the product of the future. Time will tell. The regulators may finally call the shots and prescribe that at some point in time all PMR will be digital. They may do so for spectrum conservation reasons – pack more digitised data into each channel. Again time will tell.
Meanwhile back at the analogue ranch life goes on. It is well understood that data is of increasing importance and hence the rate at which it can be moved is of consequence. Digital signalling is not a new experience - 1327 trunking control channel for example. Slow some would say, at 1200 bauds, but before long there will be analogue products offering ten times that speed and of course they will carry all the interfaces necessary to connect to the IT world and the IP world. Some would still say too slow, but its horses for courses – what does your customer really need – understand the application and offer the best value for money solution.
Having said all of that let me assure you that there is no Luddite view here of future technology. Events yet to unfold will determine that – whether they be regulatory or technology or both. My concern is with the stampeding by the heavies, whether it be for Tetra or for 3G, for the future of PMR, as I see it, does not lie down either of those tracks.
Do not be taken in by the hype about digital performance. The increased density of base station sites required to give coverage comparable with analogue confirms the point. Mute testimony in the Tetra network standing uneasily in the shadow of the original BIII network. Somewhere in commercial reality such infrastructure costs have to be paid for. There is only one source of payback – the user. Right now and in the immediate foreground, by far and away the most cost effective and available PMR solution lies with small-scale 1327 trunked networks. If that’s right, now what’s the antipodean view of the future? Well as I said earlier, events yet to unfold will determine the final outcome. This very Seminar could very well be one of the events – one would hope the outcome will be a consultative process rather than regulatory fiat.
But to be a bit more specific – a personal prediction. Yes there will be digital PMR, in some shape or form but no overnight revolution. Assuming no regulatory dictate, there will still be analogue PMR. The combination of its cost effectiveness and the continued growth world wide of large (and small) networks are real time facts. Every year we are making and installing more of the stuff. Let me close on a lighthearted note. To balance up the PR assault from some quarters I’m thinking about having a bumper sticker made reading the following message
Analogue
PMR – goes much further – sounds
great
Let me know how many you want. Thank you for listening – enjoy the seminar.
 |
